Methodology
Plain English. No formulas, no mystique.
The method behind the desk note. This page says what the engine does and what it does not do. Read it aloud in a due-diligence meeting; it holds.
Why this matters to you
When a client asks if they should be worried, a systematic read beats gut feel for one reason: it is the same every time, and you can explain it out loud. Gut feel changes with the headlines and cannot be defended after the fact. A rule that filters noise, reads the regime, and prints the exact price where it changes gives you a process to point to instead of a hunch to hope on. That is what makes the answer credible in the room, and defensible in the file.
Step one: filter the noise.
Daily closing prices are converted into a series of fixed-size moves. Price has to travel a set distance before the series records anything; wiggle smaller than that distance simply never registers. The technique is a form of renko discretization. What survives is the walk, not the wiggle.
Step two: read the regime.
Regime detection runs on the filtered series, not on raw price. A signal-processing trend measure classifies the filtered series as rising or falling: bullish or bearish. When the classification changes, that is a flip, and the session it happens is recorded with its trigger price. The read is always one of two states. There is no neutral, because a rule that can abstain can also hide.
Three durations, three resolutions.
The short-term, medium-term, and long-term reads are the same method at three filter sizes. The short duration uses small moves and speaks in weeks. The medium uses larger moves and speaks in months. The long uses the largest and speaks in quarters. They are calibrated per ticker from its own volatility, so a quiet utility and a fast semiconductor each get durations that mean the same thing. The exact geometries are proprietary and never disclosed.
The flip level.
Every read is published with the exact price at which it would change, found by simulating price into the engine each night until the read flips. If no price within fifteen percent would flip it, the card says so. The distance to the flip level is always shown; it is the risk budget on the position. When price has run more than one filtered move beyond its trigger, the card adds an extension cue — the honest way to say "late."
Freshness.
A read is fresh when the flip happened within the last two filtered moves of that duration — measured in moves, not days, so it means the same thing for a fast ticker and a slow one. Fresh bullish is labeled BUY, aged bullish HOLD; fresh bearish SELL, aged bearish AVOID. The labels are symmetric restatements of regime plus age, not advice.
Prices and honesty.
All computation runs in total-return-adjusted price space, so dividends do not masquerade as drawdowns. Historical trigger prices are shown as traded where the display calls for it, and the adjustment is stated. Signals compute on completed sessions only: nothing updates intraday, and a reading never changes under you during the day. Flip history is append-only — it is recorded as it happens, never rebuilt after the fact.
What you will never find here: price targets, probabilities, stories, or a formula dump. The method is disclosed in kind, not in parameters.